USD up as US talks of cutting China tariffs

Good morning

Well that was a pretty scorching weekend.  I have to say if we had those temperatures for the whole year I’d be pretty pleased.  Anything in low to mid 20’s is fine for me.  I must confess I do have a very slightly red neck despite my best efforts, the cooling breeze hid the full extent of the suns power but fortunately its not too bad.  I’m sure there will be plenty of others who are far worse.  

This spell of decent weather is supposed to be with us for a while now, but don’t be fooled by the sunny conditions this morning, we’re forecast an interlude of some hefty thunderstorms this afternoon, but if we do I’m hoping it’ll all be relatively short-lived and we’ll be back to sun and warmth by this time tomorrow. 

An interesting weekend in sport, no I’m not talking about the fact that Spurs are now languishing in 17th place in the league after yet another loss, nor about how exciting the race for Champions League places is progressing.  This time its boxing and my youngest son, who incidentally turns 18 today, had his first proper boxing match on Friday.  He’s been training for over a year but this was his first bout against an opponent from another club. 

He came second in the end, experience really won the day for the other lad, but although he was disappointed he is already looking forward to the next fight as and when that comes along.  It’s not easy for him to find suitable opposition, they try to grade them not only in weight but also in experience and most 18 year olds have been boxing for many years.  

Anyway, to the markets and a load of positive news over the weekend.  India and Pakistan agreed a full ceasefire over the weekend.   US and China seem to reach some initial agreement on trade and tariffs, Hamas to release some more hostages and some suggestion that Ukraine and Russia may start peace talks on 15th May despite Russia dismissing the latest calls for a ceasefire.  Let’s be honest, there is a long way to go before we can be confident of anything really positive coming from any of the above but perhaps we are starting to head in the right direction. 

European exchanges are following Asian markets with a positive open.  Currency markets had been pretty stable but as I type we’ve had a serious spell of USD buying that has taken GBPUSD to 1.3190 and EURUSD to 1.1120, both pairs dropping 100 pips or so from their overnight levels.  It comes as some reports do the rounds that US are slashing China tariffs.  Interesting this comes after Trump said over the weekend ‘now is a good time to buy stocks’.  The last time he said that, markets bounced soon after as he made some tariff reduction announcement.  Insider trading at its finest?  Anyway, more to come on this latest news I’m sure.

Calendar today full of central bank speakers including BoEs Mann, I’ll be keen to hear what she has to say about the latest rate decision.  Early tomorrow morning its UK unemployment, and then US inflation tomorrow afternoon.  So unless we get some more tariff news I’m hoping today could now be reasonably calm after the excitement so far.  I hope so anyway, I’m out for a lunch with my 18 year old!  Crikey, I’m getting really old…

Have a great day…

-  09.00 BoEs Lombardelli speaks

-  11.30 BoEs Greene speaks

-  13.50 BoEs Mann speaks

-  15.25 Feds Kugler speaks

-  17.00 BoEs Taylor speaks

-  19.00 US monthly budget statement

-  00.01 UK BRC retail sales

-  01.30 AUS Westpac consumer confidence

-  07.00 UK unemployment