Good morning To all UK readers, I hope you had a magnificent long weekend. Can’t believe we’re in September already, I know I said last year that 2025 had gone absurdly quickly but 2026 feels like a sprint in comparison. Schools should be going back this week so commuters who drive are likely to notice an increase in traffic on the roads, hopefully it means I get less email out of office bouncebacks when I send the daily report out. The weather over the weekend was nowh

Good morning Well it was another pretty non-eventful day yesterday, USD tried to push a tiny bit higher against GBP and EUR but by the London close we were back to pretty much where we started the day. There seems to be an increasing chance of a Fed rate rise next month although it seems more likely this a ‘one and done’ move so the ultimate impact on the US dollar may not be too significant. Oil prices did tick a bit higher with WTI and Brent up to $83 and $88.00 althoug

Good morning We saw a smidge of US dollar strength yesterday which came after a Core PCE reading that was bang in line with expectations and a an unchanged Q2 GDP release. GBPUSD traded below 1.3600 for the first time in a week or so. EURUSD slipped to the mid 1.16’s, USDJPY ticked up to 159.40, all in all nothing to really write home about but does keep the pressure on Fed officials to consider raising rates at the next Fed meeting. Jackson Hole begins today and I’m loo

Good morning As expected yesterday was another pretty uneventful day in the currency markets with GBP and EUR trading pretty much within a twenty pip range against USD, and each other, for much of the session. Even USDJPY offered little in the way of excitement although at 159.00 is now a touch lower than yesterday’s highs, Yen possibly helped again by a bit of September rate rise talk. GBPUSD and EURUSD are now 1.3635 and 1.1670, putting GBPEUR 1.1685. Indeed the sad new

Good morning GBPUSD has been pretty rangebound for the past few days, sitting between 1.3620 and 1.3655 for much of the time since Thursday morning. With little in the way of UK data this week it is difficult to see GBP being the driver of any moves. One could argue EURUSD has seen similarly tight ranges. Being mostly between 1.1660 and 1.1690 but we have seen a couple of brief forays above that upper level, and as I type we are just testing the lower end. With GBPUSD an

Good morning Decent US PMI’s Friday helped give the US dollar a touch of strength into the end of the week but only after GBPUSD had hit 1.3675, its highest level since Feb 2026. The USD recovery has been shallow mind you, GBPUSD got down to around 1.3620 but this morning is back up to the mid-1.36’s. EURUSD touched 1.1710 before slipping back to 1.1670, we’re just a few pips above those lows right now which puts GBPEUR 1.1685, 20 pips or so above Friday’s lows. USD

Good morning US debt reaches $40trn, doubling in a decade which explains why the cost of borrowing is such an issue. Their debt to GDP ratio of 121% is now above that of Greece and third behind Singapore at 162% and Japan at 207% according to quick internet search. The question I suppose is how much can the US actually borrow before markets start getting spooked? The US dollar remains weak, GBPUSD hit 1.3660 yesterday, just breaking the May high by a couple of pips and in

Good morning I’m back in the office after a couple of very pleasant days meeting clients. Seeing people from different backgrounds, different skill sets, different stages in their lives is one of the most enjoyable parts of this job. What they all have in common though is they do trust that we are doing a good job in helping with their currency conversions and hedging. We work hard behind the scenes to make sure their transactions are efficient and seamless, and that any

Good morning Welcome back after a slightly milder weekend. I hope you had a good and peaceful one, even if that peace was interrupted briefly by the government text alarm system reminding us not to light barbeques in these dry times. I watched the Community Shield match between Arsenal and Man City yesterday afternoon, have to say Arsenal looked pretty decent even though they probably weren’t playing their strongest team. Likely to be the team to beat this season and it’

Good morning All quiet on the currency front, I’m desperately hunting for anything remotely interesting to write but to be honest it’s a pretty futile exercise. A softer US PPI number yesterday did little to the markets other than pour a smidge more doubt as to the likelihood of a Fed rate rise next month. Still, the US managed to sell 10 year debt at 4.68% which is the highest level since 2007, while Bloomberg reports the US sold 30 year bonds yesterday at 5.216%, the hi

Good morning Yesterday’s US CPI did little to upset the markets, coming in bank in line with expectations. The US dollar did weaken a little as market pricing for a Fed rate rise in Sept slipped, GBPUSD saw a high of 1.3540, EURUSD hit 1.1560 and USDJPY dipped below 159 to 158.65. The USD weakness didn’t last long, GBPUSD and EURUSD dropped to their morning levels around 1.3500 and 1.1545, while USDJPY ticked back up to 159.15 and this morning that spell of mild USD stren

Good morning Yesterday was another pretty quiet one as we expected, GBPUSD hung around 1.3500, EURUSD 1.1545, and USDJPY around 159.25. However there is plenty on offer in the next couple of days to potentially spice things up. First up is US CPI inflation this afternoon. After a shoddy nonfarm payroll headline last week it is going to be interesting to see how this release fares. The last thing the Fed will want is a higher reading after that disappointing employment n

Good morning Limited data yesterday meant there wasn’t much for the markets to get their teeth into, and as such moves were limited. GBP outperformed, making gains against other majors with GBPUSD up to 1.3530 at one point and GBPEUR back up to 1.1715, its highest level so far this month. In the crosses, GBPAUD traded to 1.9145, GBJPY reached 215 helped by a generally weaker Yen, which is trading at 159.23 against the US dollar, in doing so wiping out half of its gains fo

Good morning I hope you had a terrific weekend. I did get a few jobs done in the garden but have to confess I spent a fair amount of time lounging around outside which made for a very pleasant weekend. US nonfarms Friday very much surprised to the downside, coming in at -23k against an expected +80k, with previous data also revised lower. Average earnings were also lower but somewhat the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. US dollar softened with GBPUSD and EURUSD tradin

Good morning Equities were mixed and oil prices made gains yesterday as it emerged a deal between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz was not quite what was hoped, containing bans for US and Israeli ships among other conditions. It remains clear that we are a long way from getting a peace deal that Trump insists Iran is desperate for. Indeed Trump is approaching the point where he either has to go all out against Iran or back down completely. Meanwhile there are repor

Good morning Talks with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz seem to be ongoing and the lack of military attacks from both sides has led us to this period of improved risk sentiment. Oil prices remain near the lows of recent ranges, heading towards the levels we saw in July before US reinstated the Iran port blockade and both US and Iran traded shots. Iran and Oman are also reported to be close to a deal on management of the Strait of Hormuz, we await confirmation of any such a

Good morning Well my first day back was a quiet one, other than catching up with a few things over the couple of working days I was off. Majors stayed in a tight range, no sign of further intervention in Yen. US equities hit record highs as Trump refrained from threatening to attack Iran, which also helped oil drop to it’s lowest levels for three weeks. Asian markets were positive overnight with Japan’s Nikkei up over 3.5%, and we’re expecting to see European markets ope

Good morning Well we’re back from a wonderful trip to Marrakech. What a place! Certainly vibrant and lively, and certainly hot. We did so much, it feels as though we’ve been away for over a week when in fact it was just three nights. Not sure I’ll ever get used to temperatures in the mid 40’s mind you, that really is something else. I don’t think I’ll ever complain about the weather here again. Anyway what have I missed here? I can’t say I kept up with all the news

Good morning The US Fed kept rates unchanged yesterday evening. Three members voted for a 25bps rate rise but the remaining members were happy to keep things as they are for the time being. This was the first time since 2016 that three members had dissented in the same direction. Warsh didn’t offer much additional insight with the Fed in a period of what he calls ‘watchful thinking’. One 25bps rate rise this year is being priced in by the markets but despite this the US

Good morning Aussie CPI inflation came in lower than expected overnight leading markets to pretty much discount any possibility of an RBA rate rise next month. AUD weakened on the release, AUDUSD and AUDNZD each traded down 40 pips or so, while GBPAUD pushed up 100 pips to 1.9150, although is currently 30 pips off that level as I type. Some looking at downside AUDJPY which has already shifted from 114.60 to 113.60 but still well above July lows which came in around 111.20