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Trump still insists Iran deal is close
Good morning What a difference a day makes. We’ve gone from warm weather and beautiful sunshine to heavy rain and cooler temperatures. Fortunately the weather held out long enough for my golf weekend, so I guess I can’t complain too much. There are reasons to welcome the rain. The farmers and our gardens will be happy, but above all it means the London Underground workers who are on strike yet again today will not be able to enjoy barbeques or rounds of golf that I’m su
revansfx
10 hours ago3 min read
Currency markets quiet ahead of key US employment data
Good morning Well here we are, the start of June, it’s a sunny morning but according to the forecasts we’re on for some cooler and wetter weather than we’ve become used to. I guess we could do with some rain, the grass needs it and the farmers will no doubt need it too. But I’d become quite used to not having to worry about taking a coat of umbrella, or even a jumper anywhere. Ah well, it is the UK. I survived my golf weekend where I did manage to play some golf and o
revansfx
1 day ago2 min read
Still waiting for that peace deal
Good morning It may only be a brief report this morning as I’m heading off on a golf weekend shortly. This will be my first golf since I had my right shoulder replaced back in February. I’m still not certain I’ll be playing, I haven’t even swung a club for almost a year, but I’ll probably give it a go and see what happens. And of course I wouldn’t miss the weekend anyway, its one we do each year with some good friends from my old football team, some of whom I really only
revansfx
4 days ago3 min read
Reports of military action in Iran spooks markets
Good morning I am get more than a little frustrated at the on/off nature of peace talks with Iran. One minute we hear a deal is pretty much ready to be signed, the next we hear of renewed hostilities with attacks reported by both US and Iran. US equities managed to close higher but most Asian markets were lower overnight and European indices are also lower this morning. The US dollar has pushed higher with GBPUSD and EURUSD trading to lows around 1.3370 and 1.1585 in the
revansfx
5 days ago3 min read
Peace or no peace, that is the question
Good morning It was another scorcher yesterday with temperatures here up to 35°c according to my car in the afternoon. We didn’t get any of the thunderstorms we’d been warned about but temperatures are likely to be lower for the next few days, still in the high-20’s mind you. Peace in Iran is still up in the air as Iran accuses US of breaking the ceasefire with its recent military strikes on Iranian boats and missile sites. This didn’t stop US equities from making new
revansfx
6 days ago3 min read
Possible Iran deal sends oil prices lower
Good morning Welcome back after the long weekend. Its been an absolute scorcher here, temperatures well above 30°c. I know lots of places have been warm and sunny over the bank holiday but it seems we’ve had it hotter than many. Could be as high as 33°c here today and then looks like it will cool down a little. Main event over the weekend of course is that Spurs managed to survive the threat of relegation with a slender 1-0 win over Everton which kept them in 17th p
revansfx
May 263 min read
Optimism over a peace deal with Iran drives markets
Good morning Apologies to those readers who did not receive yesterday’s daily, the internet police stopped my email from sending due to an unspecified word combination that a computer didn’t like somewhere. I’ve been through it and still can’t see what the problem could be. Here’s hoping it was just a glitch and this report reaches you. To be fair, there wasn’t much content in yesterday’s report given the lack of meaningful news, the main event being Aston Villa winning
revansfx
May 223 min read
Markets still hoping for a peace deal with Iran
Good morning Congratulations to Aston Villa for their convincing 3-0 win in the Europa League final yesterday evening, their first European trophy for 44 years. Trump continues to threaten Iran but did say he’d prefer to avoid war if it meant waiting a few days, with a suggestion that the final stages of talks were taking place. The markets responded positively, US equities were up, helped as well by strong Nvidia earnings, and most Asian markets followed suit, with Nik
revansfx
May 212 min read
Don't be too optimistic over better UK inflation data
Good morning Well I have to start by congratulating Arsenal on winning the premier league title, the victory coming as Man City could only manage a draw with Bournemouth last night. A lot of attention has been put on Arsenal’s unexciting match play but good teams are the ones that can grind out the 1-0 wins even when they are not playing so well. Arsenal still have the potential to do the double with the Champions League final to be played at the end of this month. Mean
revansfx
May 203 min read
Arsenal take a huge step closer to the Premier League title
Good morning For the first time in goodness knows how long I have woken up to rain hammering on the windows. The forecast suggests it could last all day, but I see looking ahead to the bank holiday weekend temperatures here are likely to hit the high 20°c region. Something to look forward to. The London tube strikes due to take place have been cancelled at the last minute, perhaps they looked at the forecast and decided next week would be a better time to not be at work!
revansfx
May 193 min read
A shaky start to the week on political and geopolitical risks
Good morning I hope you had a terrific weekend. I had a good one, rounded off brilliantly yesterday when my youngest won his first senior boxing match. Nothing quite like seeing your son getting hit in the face but somehow he seems to enjoy it. Anyway, many congratulations, a very proud father who probably took longer to recover from the bout than my son did! In other sport, Aaaron Rai became the first Englishman to win the US PGA Championship for over a century, finis
revansfx
May 183 min read
GBP lower on domestic political uncertainty
Good morning Wes Streeting resigned yesterday, not yet triggered a full leadership challenge but instead has suggested it Is time to find the strongest candidate to replace Starmer, who Streeting says, will not be leading Labour come the next election. Perhaps a clever move on Streeting’s part, he can’t be accused of forcing a change too quickly, something that could be reasonably chaotic for the country, but is opening up the potential for people to come forward and stak
revansfx
May 154 min read
Will Starmer face leadership challenge?
Good morning Higher than expected US PPI numbers yesterday helped keep the US dollar towards the higher end of recent ranges. The numbers go a long way to prove that energy price pressures are starting to feed through to other areas along the supply chain. The US dollar had a small jolt higher but soon reverted to pre-release levels, GBPUSD and EURUSD have been stuck in pretty ranges, trading now 1.3515 and 1.1710, leaving GBPEUR 1.1540. USDJPY is 157.90, there was a qui
revansfx
May 142 min read
Starmer holds his ground, Trump on his way to China
Good morning US CPI inflation came in a touch higher than expected at 3.8% yesterday which helped the US dollar hold onto gains made after Trump’s ‘live support comment regarding the Iran ceasefire. GBPUSD, currently 1.3525, saw a low around 1.3500 yesterday, some 150 pips off the weeks highs as we waited to see how a challenge to Starmer’s leadership would pan out. EURUSD has seen less impact, moving from a high around 1.1785 to current levels just around 1.1720. The hi
revansfx
May 133 min read
GBP loses ground as Starmer faces resignation calls
Good morning A bit of a nothing day yesterday, not much news to get our teeth into although once again the equity markets shrugged off the lack of an Iran peace deal and closed mostly in the black. The US dollar was on the retreat with GBPUSD and EURUSD up a few pips, GBP having the better of it with GBPEUR at 1.1585, 20 pips or so higher than Friday’s close. Since the London close though we’ve seen a change in GBP sentiment. Having seen a high around 1.3650 yesterday, G
revansfx
May 123 min read
Starmer to give 'last-ditch' speech after disastrous local election results
Good morning Friday’s nonfarm payroll headline number came in at +115k, a lot higher than expected, with a small upward revision to previous data as well. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, the only negative thing was a lower than expected average earnings number, with a downward revision to the previous month. The US dollar spiked higher initially as eyes were drawn to the headline number, then reversed as the details became clearer. In the end the likes of GB
revansfx
May 113 min read
Ceasefire at risk after US and Iran attacks
Good morning It was a down day in the equity markets yesterday and we could see further losses today as reports of US strikes on Iranian targets hit the newswires. The US insist they acted in self-defence and regard the ceasefire as still in place. Oil prices spiked higher but have reversed those gains as fears of escalation seem to have diminished for now. Trump is due to visit China next week and it has been reported that China officials are seeking an end to the Iran w
revansfx
May 83 min read
Markets still pricing on hope of a US-Iran deal
Good morning A stronger than expected US ADP employment number yesterday gave some hope to those looking for a nonfarm payroll headline over the +60k expected on Friday. Fair to say the US dollar was hardly impacted, driven as it was by Middle East talk and large-scale selling against the Yen. Still, we’ve not seen anything really resembling USDJPY intervention for 24 hours or so with USDJPY sitting in a range broadly between 156.00 and 156.50, we are currently almost ban
revansfx
May 73 min read
Hopes of a US-Iran peace plan pushes equities higher, USD lower
Good morning We saw a bit of US dollar weakness creep back in yesterday while equity markets pushed higher once again, almost as though the Iran ceasefire wasn’t at risk of collapse and ships were travelling freely through the Strait of Hormuz. European markets are opening higher this morning, following similar moves in the US and Asia. Oil prices are a little lower but remain over $100 but I’ve seen no news that offers any optimism other than some vague suggestion of a U
revansfx
May 62 min read
RBA raise rates but offer a slightly less hawkish outlook
Good morning I hope UK readers had a great long weekend. The weather was good, far better here than had been forecast although I did spend a lot of my time indoors, sorting out the front garage which seemed to have built up a lot of stuff over time. It looks a lot neater now but I don’t think I got rid of much which means it’s all still in there, just better placed. I’m sure I need it all! In sport, Spurs managed another win against a Villa side who seemed to be thinki
revansfx
May 54 min read
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