Good morning Another day, more of the same. USD a bit higher but still within recent ranges, GBPUSD 1.3355, EURUSD 1.1385, the latter just 60 pips or so off the lows seen back in June which in turn were the lowest levels the pair has been since May 2025. GBPEUR 1.1730, pretty much where it was this time yesterday morning. USDJPY is 162.35, hardly moved on talk of possible GPIF asset allocation changes which could see a move to domestic assets, with GBPJPY just around the

Good morning Firstly, many apologies for a possible late delivery of Friday’s report. Email issues at our service provider meant that while we received emails intermittently, sending emails was very delayed and random. Hoping it’s all back to normal this morning. I do hope you had a good weekend. The weather was fantastic yet again although I did experience temperatures in the low 20’s as we ventured into Norfolk for a short visit on Saturday. We have had little respi

Good morning We’ve seen a bit of USD weakness filter into the markets as we near the end of the week. GBPUSD and EURUSD are currently 1.3425 and 1.1440 respectively which puts GBPEUR at 1.1740, another high since June last year. Perhaps BoE’s Pill’s comments that we’ll need a rate rise in the UK is helping give GBP a small boost. USDJPY took advantage of the weaker US dollar, trading from 162.40 to 161.30 overnight as Japan FinMin Katayama talked of encouraging Japan pe

Good morning I’m back from a few days off, been in Paris which I have to say was better than I’d remembered. We set off the morning of the England world cup win over Mexico, an early start meant we had little sleep but an easy Eurostar service to the centre of Paris set us up for a pretty full-on but worthwhile trip. My step-counter showed some pretty impressive numbers despite temperatures approaching the mid-30’s, all in all a very pleasant few days. I arrive back to

Good morning A US nonfarm headline of +57k and a revision downward of previous months data yesterday disappointed the markets enough to send USD lower, with GBPUSD reaching 1.3380 and EURUSD 1.1470 through the afternoon. The headline was more disappointing given there had been a thought that the world cup would generate firmer employment. The market ignored the better than expected unemployment rate that ticked down to 4.2%, the general feeling suppose is that the softer

Good morning We’ve had a bit of a change in the markets. GBP is up above 1.3300 against USD, now 1.3320, but EUR has lagged, still around 1.1400 which puts GBPEUR at 1.1685, its highest level for over a year having finally broken above that 1.1600/20 area that capped the upside for so long. Perhaps Bailey’s comments yesterday that rate cuts are off the table for the time being was enough to give GBP a bit of a boost. We’ve also seen a sharp move lower in USDJPY this mor

Good morning My eldest has returned from the US having been there for the first three England world cup matches, combined with a road trip covering some 2,500 miles. All in all, he had a good time but spent more than anticipated, quite surprised at the price of things out there. Still, the four of them that went will have made some memories, that’s for sure. So, now everyone is back from holidays, in the space of one week the Evans household has gone from being just me a

Good morning Well here we are, the end of Q2 and the end of H1. Seems to have gone absurdly quickly, half way through the year already. Time flies when you’re having fun, I guess! I listened to Burnham speak yesterday. Overall I cannot say I was impressed. I thought he was quite divisive, happily separating London from the rest of the country. Now, I am closer to London so maybe I am biased or simply not aware of the huge unfairness that other areas have to face, but

Good morning I hope you enjoyed the tail end of last week and the weekend, it has got a little cooler here but it looks like temperatures will be on the rise again as we head towards the weekend and by this time next week we’ll be back up above 30°c. England have got through to the next round of the world cup by beating Panama 2-0, next up is DR Congo on Wednesday at a very reasonable 5pm kick off. England’s cricketers look on the verge of defeat once again, still needi

Good morning We had a bit more USD strength yesterday although GBP and EUR are now back to pretty much where they were this time yesterday morning, 1.3180 and 1.1360, with GBPEUR just above 1.1600. AUD had a brief push higher on better employment numbers overnight but downward revisions to previous months data saw AUD revert to pre-release levels, 1.9120 against GBP and 0.6890 and 1.2220 against USD and NZD respectively. USDJPY remains in the high 161’s despite more jawbo

Good morning I was out walking the dog this morning. I’d set off a little earlier than usual to avoid the heat, obviously more for the dog’s sake than mine. When I left the house it was the sort of temperature in which you’d be happy sitting outdoors. By the time I got back it was already getting uncomfortable. The heatwave has been well publicised, we’re getting to the mid 30’s today. If we take say 27°c as a great, warm but no overbearing temperature, 35°c is 30% war

Good morning Well that was the mother of all thunderstorms. We awoke last night to lightning, thunder and heavy rain. Not the first time, and we were expecting the storm to drift away after a few minutes as storms usually do. Instead it felt as though the storm was trapped above us. The storm continued relentlessly for over two hours, I’ve certainly not experienced anything like that in the country, lightning so bright and continuous, thunder so loud. Dropped off to sl

Good morning Well that was a warm weekend, and there is plenty more warm weather on the way with temperatures here forecast to hit 36°c or so through the week before cooling down to a more reasonable 27°c by the weekend. Best not complain mind you, we’ve had the longest day so our hours of sunshine can only get shorter from here. In weekend sport other than World Cup action, New Zealand beat England in the second test match with a dominant performance that punished Engla

Good morning Seven BoE members voted to keep rates unchanged yesterday, while two members, Pill and Greene, voted for a rate rise in a move they say would be proactive. Bailey is happy with policy where it is for now, BoE do insist they are ready to act if appropriate, but the recent peace deal with Iran and the lower oil prices that brings is enough for some to lower their BoE rate forecasts. HSBC have changed their forecasts from previously two hikes, one each in July a

Good morning Well let’s start with the main event from yesterday evening. Not, not the FOMC, I’m talking about England’s world cup match. A 4-2 win over Croatia is not a bad feat, OK we were expected to win but as I said yesterday I’d lost a bit of confidence since the start of the competition. Scoring four goals is great, but the defence did look a bit shaky and conceding two goals is a tad worrying. With Ghana and Panama still to play, England are odds on to progress

Good morning We had a slightly mixed bag of UK inflation numbers this morning. CPI was a touch lower than expected with a headline of 2.8% and core at 2.6%, while PPI and RPI were a little firmer if we include upward revisions to last months readings. All in all though, a fairly benign set of numbers that shouldn’t encourage BoE to do anything other than keep rates on hold tomorrow, particularly as the CPI readings were well below those forecast by BoEs own staff. GBPUS

Good morning BoJ raised rates 25bps to 1% overnight as widely expected. 1% doesn’t sound like much but it is the highest Japanese rates have been since 1995, pretty much when I started in the FX world. Additional rate rises are not out of the question but timing and pace of adjustments is unclear but likely to be slow. We’ve seen little impact in the currency markets with USDJPY 160.30 and GBPJPY 215.00. RBA decided to keep rates unchanged at their meeting in the earl

Good morning Welcome back after what I hope was a terrific weekend. We had some lovely weather which meant I spent plenty of time topping up my vitamin D levels, a lot of work in the garden after the recent rain helped the grass grow almost right in front of my eyes. Have to say I’m aching a bit today. I’ve not caught much of the world cup so far, the match timings haven’t been great but if I’m honest I haven’t yet got particularly excited about the whole thing. Perhaps

Good morning The ECB did raise interest rates 25bps to 2.25% yesterday, a move that was widely expected and priced in. Lagarde warned of a possible slowdown, citing the Iran war as the primary reason. She failed to give much of an idea of rate moves going forward but as with most central banks they will have to balance the risk of fighting higher inflation while protecting economic growth. As has been the case for a while now, the market is getting pulled around by com

Good morning US headline CPI inflation came was bang in line with expectations yesterday at 4.2%, its highest level for three years. It is now over five years since CPI was at or below target, some see that as a fault of the Fed although to be honest we’re including shocks such as Covid in that time which saw global inflation rates push higher, something the Fed could hardly control. Even now, inflation is largely driven by energy prices, the core reading that excludes en