Good morning Not a great deal going on in the major currencies. The US dollar has kept much of its recent strength helped by decent enough PMI numbers yesterday, GBP and EUR are now 1.3215 and 1.1210, with GBPEUR a touch lower at 1.1790. USDJPY is back above 158.00 but does seem to face resistance as it gets to the 158.40 area. GBP is 209.00 against JPY, and against AUD, NZD and CAD it is currently 1.8970, 2.3625 and 1.8865. NZD is the weaker of that bunch, with AUDNZD

Good morning US nonfarms on Friday surprised to the downside which took a bit of a shine off the US dollar. The headline came on at +29k while previous readings were also revised lower. GBPUSD pushed up 40 pips or so from its lows around 1.3200 to 1.3240, EURUSD saw a similar sized move from 1.1225 to almost 1.1265 while USDJPY dropped 75 pips from 157.70 to 156.95. Weaker factory orders data later in the afternoon gave another reason to sell the US dollar, GBP and EUR r

Good morning EUR weakness is a current theme in the currency markets, EURUSD saw a low around 1.1215 yesterday while GBPEUR pushed as high as 1.1755. Widening spreads in EU bonds seemed to be the catalyst, the France/German spread moved to its widest level since 2012, now around 143bps compared to a 2026 low around 55bps after France revealed its latest budget plans. The spread between Italian and German 10 year bonds has also risen sharply, now around 120bps, double this

Good morning October is upon us and with it the final quarter of 2026. GBP starts the quarter on a pretty strong footing across the board. It traded as high as 1.3310 against USD yesterday as US core PCE came in lower than expected although that bout of USD weakness was short-lived partly due to the decline in PCE coming from a change in methodology rather than any major turn in inflation. Other US data yesterday was generally strong with ADP and Chicago PMI both well a

Good morning Well here we are, the end of the Q3 2026. I’ll say again that this year is going so absurdly quickly. In fairness it feels like I have been away for a fair bit of this quarter which could explain why it seems to have gone by so quickly and even when I was in the UK the weather was so terrific I’m sure I spent some working hours sitting in the sunshine. Feels much more wintry this morning. UK PM Burnham spoke at the Labour party conference yesterday. He do

Good morning In what many will see as a strange decision, the five men arrested on suspicion of potential terrorism at Fairford have been bailed. Yes, those guys who looked ready to blow up something or someone are back on the streets. I’m not sure what Trump will make of that giving his comments that they have been following these guys for months and they now have them. Perhaps these are not the guys Trump is referring to, but I cannot help thinking all is not quite wha

Good morning Welcome to a new week, I hope you enjoyed a tremendous weekend. We had some excellent weather, I managed to get out in the garden to do some much-needed tidying up including mowing the lawn which is doing its best to turn from brown to green. I also helped my youngest repair his car. It had been damaged when parked, a motorbike had hit it a while ago and dented the bumper which absurdly led to it being written off. Insurance paid out, we bought the car back

Good morning Another day of GBP weakness against both USD and EUR, seeing lows of 1.3210 and 1.1615 before a late recovery pushed GBP from those lows into the London close. The recovery was brief and shallow, and as I type we are back towards those lower levels. US bond yields made recent highs again yesterday although worth noting that EU and UK bond yields are also at historically elevated levels. USDJPY has dropped from yesterday’s highs around 159 to trade just belo

Good morning Yesterday brought more GBP weakness against USD and EUR which has so far seen GBPUSD down to 1.3225 and GBPEUR to 1.1625, while EURUSD also dropped to 1.1370 overnight. The USD strength comes as US 10 year yields hit their highest level since July 2007 while US 30 year yields are at their highest since June 2004. That doesn’t sound great but worth noting they remain well below the UK’s 10 and 30 year gilt yield. Worth noting that US PMI’s all came in above

Good morning Two days back from holiday and I’ve managed to do my back in. L3 apparently, which I can assure doesn’t sound anywhere near as bad as it is. I had been doing a bit of swimming g when I was away and decided I’d join the local gym with a swimming pool to finally get fitter and healthier. I did my back pretty much reaching for the phone to sign up. I told you exercise can’t be good for you. US dollar strength was the key theme yesterday, with GBP and EUR tra

Good morning First day back and dusted, avoided any air traffic control issues by a day on the way out and again by a day on the way home. It wasn’t a particularly busy day, GBPUSD and EURUSD were stuck in tight ranges, the latter eyeing support around 1.1455 which is just a few pips off where we are now, GBPUSD is 1.3365, 30 pips or so off last weeks lows. GBPEUR is around 1.1660. Of interest have been comments from Fed’s Musalem and Collins who have said they’d be ope

Good morning I’m back from what can only be described as a glorious family holiday in Menorca. Don’t expect clubs and parties, it is a fairly quiet island, relatively unspoilt with its fair share of sandy bays, sleepy marinas and small but pretty cities. For those who enjoy a bit of countryside, there is a 185km walking route that circles Menorca which offers a variety of trails for all levels of hikers. The weather was fantastic which obviously helps any holiday, and fo

Good morning It’s raining and pretty gloomy here this morning, which makes a change because historically when I go on holiday the weather at home is pretty decent. Actually a glance at the forecast suggests it could just be today that’s wet and miserable so hopefully for the rest of you things will brighten up again. Miserable is a word that could be used to describe the general feeling at the moment. We are nearer any peace deal between US and Iran, oil prices are hig

Good morning Welcome back, hope you had a terrific weekend. Plenty of sport on offer, South Africa eventually overpowered the All Blacks to win the third test match, and Kimi Antonelli came from 19th on the grid to win the Italian F1 grand prix, the first Italian driver to win on home soil since 1966. And in football, Arsenal came from behind to beat Chelsea, in doing so keeping their 100% win record along with Man City. Hull remain in the top four following their draw w

Good morning Welcome to 4th September, a day that is special to me only because on this day back in 1989 I started my first job in the world financial hub, the City of London. OK, it was a pretty dreary admin role but who’d have thought I’d be here, some thirty seven years later, co-owning a fully regulated financial firm of my own. Well, when I set out, I probably imagined I’d have my feet up on a desert island somewhere by now, but it’s fair to say that both Mark and I

Good morning I’ll have to start with Japanese Yen given it is the big mover. I mentioned yesterday morning that UDSJPY had dropped from 160.40 to 159.50, it continued that trend and as I type it sits around 156.40. GBPJPY, which not so long ago had been in the mid-217’s, is now 211.50. There is talk of intervention although we’ve seen nothing to confirm any official action. I have seen renewed talk of repatriation of foreign assets, Japan is the largest holder of US bo

Good morning I listened to new PM Burnham as he spoke to the House of Commons for the first time since his appointment well over one month ago. He does speak some sense at times, for example he mentioned the abject failure of our water companies, something regular readers will know is a constant bother of mine. However I remain unimpressed with his idea of No 10 North and his plans for devolution of power which I can only think will bring increased spending and even more

Good morning To all UK readers, I hope you had a magnificent long weekend. Can’t believe we’re in September already, I know I said last year that 2025 had gone absurdly quickly but 2026 feels like a sprint in comparison. Schools should be going back this week so commuters who drive are likely to notice an increase in traffic on the roads, hopefully it means I get less email out of office bouncebacks when I send the daily report out. The weather over the weekend was nowh

Good morning Well it was another pretty non-eventful day yesterday, USD tried to push a tiny bit higher against GBP and EUR but by the London close we were back to pretty much where we started the day. There seems to be an increasing chance of a Fed rate rise next month although it seems more likely this a ‘one and done’ move so the ultimate impact on the US dollar may not be too significant. Oil prices did tick a bit higher with WTI and Brent up to $83 and $88.00 althoug

Good morning We saw a smidge of US dollar strength yesterday which came after a Core PCE reading that was bang in line with expectations and a an unchanged Q2 GDP release. GBPUSD traded below 1.3600 for the first time in a week or so. EURUSD slipped to the mid 1.16’s, USDJPY ticked up to 159.40, all in all nothing to really write home about but does keep the pressure on Fed officials to consider raising rates at the next Fed meeting. Jackson Hole begins today and I’m loo