Good morning   Yesterday was generally calm in the financial markets, a day of little data.  Equities were more mixed with US markets making small gains but Asian markets ended the week with a down day.  Futures prices points to an uncertain open in Europe.  The US dollar is a touch stronger across the board, GBPUSD currently 1.3510, EURUSD 1.1775 which puts GBPEUR a touch lower at 1.1470.  A recent poll of economists suggests ECB may be forced to make one 25bps rate rise in

Good morning   European and US markets were mixed yesterday but Asian markets made gains again overnight, the Nikkei was up over 2%, winning back losses made since the start of the Iran war.  The US dollar remains on the back foot with GBPUSD holding in the high-1.35s and EURUSD just touching 1.1800, while USDJPY sits at 158.80 having had a brief test to 158.25 overnight on comments from Japan FinMin Katayama who said she had held thorough talks with US TrySec Bessent over FX

Good morning   Another day, another decent set of moves up in global equities as oil prices and the US dollar drop.  GBPUSD saw a high of 1.3590 yesterday, EURUSD got above 1.1800 and even USDJPY managed to lose a few points, slipping to a low around 158.60 at one stage in the afternoon.  USD is just off those lows for the time being and although European equities are a little mixed this morning there is still a strong, hopefully not misplaced belief that there will be a posi

Good morning   A surprising bout of improving risk sentiment pushed US and Asian equity markets up overnight, oil prices have dropped back below $100 and the US dollar has weakened enough to take it almost back to pre-Iran war levels.  GBPUSD is around 1.3525, EURUSD 1.1770, although USDJPY has failed to keep up with USD losses, still stuck in the low 159’s.  BoJs Ueda dented chances of a rise in Yen by playing down chances of a rate rise later this month, preferring to remai

Good morning Welcome back, I hope you had a wonderful weekend   US headline CPI inflation was indeed much firmer than previous readings on Friday as the impact of the Iran war although the Core reading (excluding food and energy) was a touch below expectations.  US rate expectations have shifted, with some now not seeing a rate cut until very late in 2026.  Market impact was limited as the market concentrated more on the Iran war talks that would be taking place over the week

Good morning   Softer US data kept the US dollar on the back foot yesterday but of course most attention remains on the Middle East and the fragile ceasefire that still seems to mean different things to the various countries involved.  Peace talks begin in Pakistan today, the US will push hard for some sort of deal, particularly to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and failure to find any agreement could well see hostilities restart.  Meanwhile Trump’s anger with NATO continues as

Good morning   The weather here was wonderful yesterday, sunny, not a cloud in the sky and yes, I did take some time to sit out and enjoy it.  While the weather may have been warm, equities were on fire, the German Dax was up over 5%, the FTSE 100 more matched US stock rises, up around 2.5%.  Majors held much of their gains against the US dollar although are off the highs, GBPUSD and EURUSD had managed to peak around 1.3480 and 1.1720 yesterday afternoon, now 1.3400 and 1.166

Good morning   Welcome back after the long weekend.  I hope you missed the strong winds and instead enjoyed the blue skies we had for much of time.  It was mostly sunny if a little on the chilly side, that may change over the next couple of days as temperatures are due to rise to the mid-20’s if we’re lucky.  Those heady temperatures are only here for a couple of days mind you so do our best to make the most of it.   Congratulations to Man City, Chelsea, Southampton and Leeds

Good morning   Decent enough US retail sales and ISM manufacturing numbers did little to support the US dollar yesterday, instead it continued to weaken into the London close with GBPUSD touching 1.3345 and EURUSD reaching 1.1625.  All eyes however were on Trump overnight, his previous speech had sent equities higher, and oil and USD lower, on hopes of speedy end to Iranian hostilities.  Trump began his overnight speech saying the ‘hard part is done’ and that the military obj

Good morning   We saw a brief bit of USD weakness creeping in yesterday which took GBPUSD to 1.3265 and EURUSD to 1.1560, US stocks were also higher on some hope that Trump was looking for an early end to the Iran war.  However, late in the afternoon GBP dropped against both USD and EUR, moving back to 1.3175 and 1.1440 respectively as concerns over UK economic conditions and then thoughts of possible BoE rate cuts took hold.    Added to that, the news that additional British

Good morning   Last day of Q1 today, those three months have gone pretty quick.  It’s certainly been a tumultuous time recently, particularly the last month since the war on Iran began.  At least the weather is a bit milder, we are into British Summer Time and its getting lighter earlier and darker later.  Add to that, UK PM Starmer looks like he is getting tough on Unions, warning Doctors that they will lose the latest jobs deal if they insist on pushing through with their u

Good morning   Welcome back, I hope you had a wonderful weekend.  I managed to get out do some light work in the garden on Saturday, the sun was just too tempting and although it was still a bit chilly, it was great to see blue skies and feel the odd bit of warmth from the sun.  Must admit after a period of time of being pretty inactive, I’m aching a lot now but the new shoulder stood up pretty well to the demands I put on it, light as they were.   The clocks changed here at

Good morning   US data releases are still one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 London time.    FX option expiries will be 14.00 London time, not the usual 15.00 London time.   This will be until this Sunday 29 th  March when we change our clocks in the UK.  Back to normal for Monday morning.   UK retail sales numbers this morning were not great but were better than many expected, with upward revisions noted in the previous months data as well.  GBP mostly ignored the numbers, G

Good morning   US data releases are still one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 London time.    FX option expiries will be 14.00 London time, not the usual 15.00 London time.   This will be until Sunday 29 th March when we change our clocks in the UK.   US and European equities had a decent day yesterday although Asian markets were in the red overnight and futures prices suggest a disappointing opening this morning.  Oil prices are up, USD is up and equities lower as some of op

Good morning   US data releases are still one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 London time.    FX option expiries will be 14.00 London time, not the usual 15.00 London time.   This will be until Sunday 29 th March when we change our clocks in the UK.     Markets may still be hoping for an early end to the Middle East conflict but they do seem to be pricing in less optimism.   While we are all hoping for a de-escalation I have seen some worrying comments reportedly from Iran th

Good morning   Plenty of volatility yesterday amid comments from Trump which on the face of it suggested the Iranians were happy to look for peace, sending equities higher, oil and USD lower.  Who really knows whether the Iranians have indeed become more compliant, or whether Trump is simply backing down a little given the Iranian regime showed no sign of backing down despite Trump’s various threats and military action.  Reports suggest Iran knew nothing of the talks Trump re

Good morning   Welcome back after a lovely weekend.  I hope you enjoyed the same dry, sunny weather, OK at times it was not warm but we’re only just coming out of winter so that’s understandable, but just to see the blue sky gave a warm enough feeling.  Can’t say that watching Spurs gave me a warm feeling mind you.  I was pretty confident heading into the match, and Spurs had a reasonable start but having been unable to score from open play or indeed one of the numerous first

Good morning   US data releases will be one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 London time.    FX option expiries will be 14.00 London time, not the usual 15.00 London time.   This will be until Sunday 29 th March when we change our clocks in the UK.     BoE chose to keep UK rates unchanged at 3.75% in a unanimous decision yesterday, the risks of higher inflation from rising energy costs the main concern, although Bailey did highlight the risks of softer economic activity and lo

Good morning   US data releases will be one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 London time.    FX option expiries will be 14.00 London time, not the usual 15.00 London time.   This will be until Sunday 29 th March when we change our clocks in the UK.     The Fed did keep rates unchanged yesterday, no great surprise that Miran voted for a 25bps cut but all other members voted for no change.  Powell said that the economy was performing well and current policy was appropriate, alth

Good morning   US data releases will be one hour earlier at 12.30 or 14.00 London time.    FX option expiries will be 14.00 London time, not the usual 15.00 London time.   This will be until Sunday 29 th March when we change our clocks in the UK.     One month ago to the day I got home from my right shoulder replacement. Its been an interesting month, probably a tad harder than I’d expected, bearing in mind I’d been through it before with my left shoulder, but even so I’m on